Fred Sneesby - Observations on Culture, Faith and Politics

Predictions: 2007

December 27, 2006

So, on December 31, 2007, what will we be celebrating and what will we be mourning? What will we be proud of and what will we regret? Whom will we admire and whom will we despise? What will have overtaken us by surprise and what will we have fully expected?

First of all, there are very few surprises in life. Either we saw it coming or we should have. The real surprise is that we fail to notice tendencies, directions, momentum, trends, or inevitable consequences. I think one surprise this year will be Iraq; US soldiers will be able to leave sooner than expected. It will be a surprise because we think we are in control there and will be calling the shots. The fact is that we are dependent on forces that we cannot control and those forces will look over the brink they are standing on across the Middle East and decide to step back, in Iraq, in Palestine, and in Lebanon. On December 31, 2007, we will be breathing a sigh of relief even though major problems will remain simmering in that troubled part of the world.

World attention will be directed to northeast Africa and the widening warfare there. Again, we will be facing intractable and very complex issues with layers of history and religious, cultural, and economic relationships that are almost impossible to distinguish. The war there, while remaining unresolved, will bring into focus two major issues that will dominate discussion around the world in the coming years and, certainly, in the United States through 2007 and into the 2008 elections: the shifting of populations and goods. I am using “goods” here in the broadest sense: raw and manufactured materials, intellectual capital, wealth, and services. We see it on a very practical level even here in Rhode Island where refugees from that part of the world are being re-settled by the Federal government. We face it with the murky economic outlook in many parts of the country because wealth and goods and services are so fluid globally that we can’t even label this movement as good or bad. Notice of the troubles in North Africa will lead to lots of discussion about the movement of peoples and the shifts in economic gravity that are taking place.

If there is an American culture, it will be challenged on two fronts. First of all, the relative openness of the country will be questioned. Discussion about our borders will continue but so will talk of the “American identity” and the country’s capacity to absorb the many cultures that already make the United States their home. American society will pause in the middle of its cultural tightrope and, looking down at no net, will realize how fragile our relationships are among racial, ethnic, and language groups in our country, not to mention state and regional differences, age and class divisions, and competing economic forces within our own borders. We are approaching an era of awareness of differences that will lead either to a new maturity in our society or to variations on a civil war. Politically there is already great division but there are many more divides that will be made manifest. Our society’s response to this growing realization of differences is yet to be determined but it is easy to predict that leadership and wisdom will be keys to a good resolution.

Secondly, the openness of the “American dream” will be in doubt, that is, the limits to opportunity, material expectations, and economic growth will become more apparent. Again, the United States will become increasingly aware of a global leveling that is taking place; this awareness will grow because of continued entanglements overseas and political discussions at home.

The world landscape will be changing so dramatically that American politics will have to change. The old methods and rhetoric will disappear and a new agenda will emerge along with new leaders. Political action groups will begin to rival the power of the two political parties in shaping the debate in the country and the democratizing potential of the Internet and digital communication will be more and more realized. The frontrunners in the Presidential race may very well be non-politicians by the beginning of 2008.

I guess the above is more along the lines of an “outlook” than a “forecast.” Do you want some very specific predictions? OK.

The price of gasoline will be five cents a gallon less a year from now than it is today.
Satellite radio will falter and the two major companies will merge.
“American Idol” and “Survivor” will be in their last seasons.
The issue of performance-enhancing drugs in sports will explode.
There will be no major natural disaster.
They will raise the price of a stamp to 41 cents.
A Springer Spaniel will win the Westminster Dog Show.
The Pope will travel to Latin America.
A Kenyan will win the Boston Marathon.
The San Diego Chargers will win the Super Bowl.
A major archaeological find will be made in Iceland.
North Korea will agree to stop its nuclear arms program.
President Bush’s approval rating will be at 45% next December.
Dick Cheney will call Hugo Chavez a vulgar name.
A new Supreme Court justice will be nominated before the end of the year.
“ Babel” will win the Oscar for Best Film of the Year.
Philip Morris will stop selling cigarettes.
Iran will have a new president.
The last name of the new Iranian president will decide the National Spelling Bee.
The Boston Red Sox will win the World Series.

There you have it! I’ll keep a scorecard and report on the results a year from now. I think the only sure bet, though, is the Boston Marathon.