Fred Sneesby - Observations on Culture, Faith and Politics

Predictions: 2008

January 14, 2008

I’m still in shock that all my predictions for 2007 didn’t come true!

No, not really. You can go to the column from a year ago, though, and see for yourself how prescient I was (click here). Last year, I noted some cultural trends that I still think will become more prominent as the Presidential election debate churns up discussion of the economy and immigration. The openness of the country will be examined, not just the borders but also the ability of our culture to process the many cultures that continue to come to the United States. From an economic standpoint, the open-endedness of the American dream will be doubted as the limits to opportunity and growth become more apparent in a changing world. For the next several years, these issues of America’s uncertainty about its identity and purpose will be “in play” and a legitimate part of any New Year’s predictions.

This year we will witness a political trend that has disturbing implications for our culture. It has already been highlighted in the news coverage of the early primaries: more and more, the “unaffiliated”, the Independents, will be crucial to the elections. Candidates will be pursuing them like the Gold Rush. The disturbing trend is not that candidates will target the unaffiliated but that there is a growing number of these people. Membership in the parties is shrinking and more and more people are uncommitted. That says a lot about our culture and about an increasingly disjointed political life in our society.

Political parties are the first watersheds of consensus. Various and sometimes very different interests come together in political parties and begin to hammer out a platform, a program, a set of values and goals. It is not always smooth or painless, but it fulfills an essential function in civic life. Political parties supply the arena and mechanics for the rudiments of establishing common ground. Party platforms act as springboards for the larger societal enterprise of legislating and governing; the parties are an intermediate step, if you will, for the more difficult task of finding common ground among even more disparate groups.

If more and more people are unwilling to step out of their particular interests and agendas to join others in a political party, that does not bode well for our ability to see ourselves or to act as a group. If more and more people are unwilling to sacrifice their peculiar visions of “how it ought to be”, in favor of something that will satisfy the many, then we are in for a rough ride. Fragmentation is the result; raw individualism becomes the creed. Although the country was built on the virtue of individualism, the other side of virtue is always vice, and the vice here becomes intolerance, fear, power-grabbing, and the breakdown of social bonds that are necessary for our society to function. The growing number of Independents is not a good symptom.

Well, enough of trends. Here are some very specific predictions that you will be able to call me on a year from now:

Housing prices will level off by the end of 2008.
A mild protest movement will start toward the end of the year over analog televisions’ becoming obsolete.
“American Idol” and “Survivor” will be in their last seasons. I said this last year, too. This is not a prediction; it is a wish.
Environmental groups will disrupt the Olympics.
The performance-enhancing drug crisis will spread to all major sports.
George Bush will not campaign for Republican candidate for President.
A Scottish Terrier will win the Westminster Dog Show.
The Pope will dye his hair. Just kidding. The Pope will publish an encyclical on the nature of belief.
A Kenyan will win the Boston Marathon. I said that last year and, incredibly, I was wrong!
The New England Patriots will win the Super Bowl.
Confidence in the mapping of genes will be shaken.
Fewer US troops in Iraq; more US troops in Afghanistan and Africa..
Laura Bush will move to a state from which she thinks she can be elected US Senator in order to use it eventually as a springboard to the Presidency.
Cuba will have a new leader.
One of the trio of Britney Spears, Lindsey Lohan, and Paris Hilton will remain sober for the year.
“Atonement” will win the Oscar for Best Film of the Year.
The results of the US Presidential election will be affected by foul weather.
The Boston Red Sox will win the World Series.
Hillary Clinton and Bill Richardson will be the nominees of the Democrat Party; John McCain and Christine Todd Whitman will be the Republican ticket. McCain will win.

We’ll check these in a year!